sábado, 4 de maio de 2013

FK puzzled face

When FK was young, still a promise, i invited him to lunch. I wanted to introduce him to some people from the financial markets. After lunch we bought some mega sena tickets. FK chosen sequence was 6 16 26 36 46 56. An economist in the group seeing this then said to him : " you will never win with this sequence". I feared for this person health, but FK just stared at him/her with a puzzled face, disappointed, i think, unable to understand how an economist could have said that. This was long ago, we are old now. I still keep betting, and I always choose FK's old sequence (which is just as probable as any other).

7 comentários:

  1. The lottery is just a way of taxing poor people who don't know math.

    The Anchor

  2. there is, however, a rational objection to picking such numbers: for superstitious reasons, many people must choose the same sequence, and you'll have to share the prize money with them if you win. better to go with something closer to a "truly random" sequence, increasing your payoff if the numbers do come up.

    1. Disagree, dear Lucas.
      People shun from such sequences precisely because they judge them unlikely (for whatever reason). People use important dates and ages when betting.

  3. The probabilities are exactly the same.

    But according to a senior FEA macro professor, Brazil is a country with continental dimensions. So we have to pay attention to all the important history lessons. In other words, we live in a complex world.

    Thus P(1,2,3,4,5,6) < P(23,32,33,48,51,59)

  4. IMHO, P(1,2,3,4,5,6) = P(23,32,33,48,51,59)


    Payoff(1,2,3,4,5,6) < Payoff(23,32,33,48,51,59)

    Agree, Uncle CT?

    The Anchor

  5. Maybe that's the reason you've never won...