sábado, 4 de maio de 2013

FK puzzled face

When FK was young, still a promise, i invited him to lunch. I wanted to introduce him to some people from the financial markets. After lunch we bought some mega sena tickets. FK chosen sequence was 6 16 26 36 46 56. An economist in the group seeing this then said to him : " you will never win with this sequence". I feared for this person health, but FK just stared at him/her with a puzzled face, disappointed, i think, unable to understand how an economist could have said that. This was long ago, we are old now. I still keep betting, and I always choose FK's old sequence (which is just as probable as any other).

7 comentários:

  1. The lottery is just a way of taxing poor people who don't know math.


    The Anchor

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  2. there is, however, a rational objection to picking such numbers: for superstitious reasons, many people must choose the same sequence, and you'll have to share the prize money with them if you win. better to go with something closer to a "truly random" sequence, increasing your payoff if the numbers do come up.

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    Respostas
    1. Disagree, dear Lucas.
      People shun from such sequences precisely because they judge them unlikely (for whatever reason). People use important dates and ages when betting.

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  3. The probabilities are exactly the same.

    But according to a senior FEA macro professor, Brazil is a country with continental dimensions. So we have to pay attention to all the important history lessons. In other words, we live in a complex world.

    Thus P(1,2,3,4,5,6) < P(23,32,33,48,51,59)

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  4. IMHO, P(1,2,3,4,5,6) = P(23,32,33,48,51,59)

    but,

    Payoff(1,2,3,4,5,6) < Payoff(23,32,33,48,51,59)

    Agree, Uncle CT?

    The Anchor

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  5. Maybe that's the reason you've never won...

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