terça-feira, 6 de agosto de 2013

Volatilidade da PIM e PIM pra frente

Rimou estranho esse título.

Volatilidade tem a ver com incerteza / alterações esquisitas de policy, ou muitos choques vindos do além.

Nenhuma dessas coisas é boa pra investimento, pro empresário.

Então deveria ter uma correlação negativa entre medidas de vol e crescimento

E tem, ao que parece...

O coeficiente parcial controlando só pra constante é bem significativo;

Ah, não me enche com coisas de endogeneidade, se não eu mando o A.C.P te ligar!





4 comentários:

  1. Sei não, Dudu, essa reta tá bem heróica.

    ResponderExcluir
  2. Ha ha, verdade. Mas como eu disse, controla pra uma constante e olha a estatística-t do bicho...

    Not claiming causality, remember that

    ResponderExcluir
  3. se tirar 08/09 a reta inverte?

    ResponderExcluir
  4. Sometime ago I had the misfortune of asking A.C.P. about a possible endogeneity in his model that was leading him to take strong conclusions on the monetary policy stance of the BCB.

    Of course that I am not dumb and I see clearly the lack of independence of the current BCB. I don't need any regressions to see that... but at that time the compulsorios%M2 was still very high and everybody was finding the scenario quite murky...

    I was as polite as I could, swear... you should have seen the man... as usual he overreacted and was very quite unpolite. Mounted in his presumption he asked me to call to his economist that was the main responsible for the models... then he could "teach me" some stuff.

    I should have said that he could go to a cantina encher aquela barriga de macarronada... moron!!! Vai estudar, velho presuncoso.

    ResponderExcluir