Now, why should I trust Tombini's words this time around?
Because (i) his scenario for economic activity has been confirmed, 1% first quarter IBCBR; and (ii) his inflation forecast proved wrong: long run expectations rose and short-term CPI surprised everyone on the upside. So even if Tombini cares more about y than about pi, he should hasten the pace.
Well, I still have my doubts. I think Tombini does want to tighten faster, but if GDP figures put Dilma in dire straits, I guess she will dial the CB number and, very politely, order him to shut the fuck up.
Economista X, qual livro de macroeconomia você recomenda para ter um bom conhecimento da matéria (não precisa ser um livro para aprender a computar DSGE no Matlab)?
ResponderExcluir"Structural Macroeconometrics" De Jong and Chetan Dave
ResponderExcluirRecomendo o Manual de Macroeconomia dos Professores da USP
ResponderExcluirRecomendo as colunas do Delfim Netto.
ResponderExcluirRecomendo desencanar, se for burro como eu.
ResponderExcluir"Structural Macroeconometrics De Jong and Chetan Dave"
ResponderExcluirX, não tenho uma base forte nos modelos DSGE. É precisamente isso que estou procurando...