Sorry, you are wrong again, Delfos. And i find it important to inform the readers, even though i love you.
Rational expectations is not incompatible with excessive volatility as you suggest in your piece today. Quite the contrary. In a rational expectations model all incoming news generate price swings. it is precisely because agents are rational that asset prices gyrate so much. Jesus, Delfos, u should know this.
Now, tell me this, Delfos. Suppose the president is Cardoso, and the economic indicators are Dilma's: inflation above 6, current account at minus 3, growth close to 2. Would u be so praiseworth as you are towards Dilma?
Do not answer
I love you delfos! You give me a reason to continue living
O gordo diz que isso foi fruto de escolha consciente do governo e o resultado é o esperado. Tente contra-argumentar agora?
ResponderExcluirApart from the usual cheap talk, Delfos is not wrong at all. Let's take a look at a recent Woodford paper called "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis", which goes like that: "..the assumption (rational expectations) is a strong one, and one may wonder if it should be relaxed, especially when considering relatively short-run responses to disturbances, or the consequences of newly adopted policies that have not been followed in the past — both of which are precisely the types of situations which macroeconomic analysis frequently seeks to address."
ResponderExcluirIf Woodford is considering relaxing RE, who am I to be a great RE fan nowadays?
Parabéns a todos pelo dia do economista!
ResponderExcluirIt seems that someone didn't read Dornbusch...
ResponderExcluirflogging a dead horse
ResponderExcluirWhat readers?
ResponderExcluirflogging a dead horse? no he is not dead yet, i guess
ResponderExcluirdilma is a reader
Dornbusch overshooting is a fine piece...rational agentes but slow moving good prices and fast moving asset prices
if you drop rational expectations, what do you replace it with? irrational expectations can be anything
expectativas aleatórias, agentes irracionais todo o tempo, que não se protege nem busca se dar bem, somente usa a intuição péssima em estatística (segundo o "think fast..."), usa o padrão anterior que não funciona, busca padrão onde não existe (tipo palmeiras rebaixado então compro dólar...)
ResponderExcluir